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Event Markets

Live data

Event Market Intelligence

Track prediction-market probabilities across politics, crypto, macro, sports, AI, and culture — for research and education.

Event market prices are not guarantees. Probabilities can move quickly, liquidity can be thin, and resolution rules matter. MarketPulses shows educational analytics only and does not provide trading, betting, or investment advice. Read full disclaimer.

Active markets shown

60

Highest-liquidity market

$1.21M

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Biggest 24h mover

+64.5 pts

Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 47.5

Ending within 7 days

35

Explore markets

Sports
-50.4 pts

Spread: Packers (-4.5)

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$2.81M
Liquidity$862.84K
EndsToday
Low resolution risk
Ends soon
Sports
+52.4 pts

Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 43.5

Yes probability

100%

Details
Volume$2M
Liquidity$491.55K
EndsToday
Low resolution risk
Ends soon
+1.0 pts

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes probability

14%

Details
Volume$68.78M
Liquidity$1.21M
Ends98d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
+29.5 pts

Houston Astros vs. Athletics

Yes probability

92%

Details
Volume$871.92K
Liquidity$71.25K
Ends7d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Politics

Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$35.51M
Liquidity$1.17M
Ends774d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording

Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$22M
Liquidity$428.45K
Ends248d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Politics
+0.1 pts

Will Mitch Landrieu win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$568.11K
Liquidity$923.76K
Ends774d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Yes probability

4%

Details
Volume$42.81M
Liquidity$664.52K
Ends98d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Macro
+2.0 pts

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Yes probability

67%

Details
Volume$3.42M
Liquidity$573.94K
Ends34d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
+56.0 pts

San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Yes probability

94%

Details
Volume$495.17K
Liquidity$90.97K
Ends7d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
-38.5 pts

Spread: Packers (-7.5)

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$477.55K
Liquidity$279.23K
EndsToday
Low resolution risk
Ends soon
Sports
+58.0 pts

Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners

Yes probability

93%

Details
Volume$437.81K
Liquidity$90.16K
Ends7d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
-44.5 pts

Spread: Packers (-6.5)

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$582.28K
Liquidity$275.98K
EndsToday
Low resolution risk
Ends soon
Macro
-0.1 pts

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$2.41M
Liquidity$349.2K
Ends34d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Macro

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$2M
Liquidity$504.43K
Ends34d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Macro
+0.4 pts

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Yes probability

1%

Details
Volume$2.07M
Liquidity$381.93K
Ends34d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Macro
-1.0 pts

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Yes probability

33%

Details
Volume$3.54M
Liquidity$484.14K
Ends34d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
+1.0 pts

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Yes probability

23%

Details
Volume$12.83M
Liquidity$481.12K
Ends98d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
+17.2 pts

Golden State Valkyries vs. Los Angeles Sparks

Yes probability

99%

Details
Volume$282.18K
Liquidity$78.26K
EndsToday
Low resolution risk
Boundary-sensitive wording
Ends soon
Politics
-0.1 pts

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes probability

1%

Details
Volume$14.4M
Liquidity$578.69K
Ends10d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Politics
-2.9 pts

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes probability

54%

Details
Volume$11.81M
Liquidity$456.87K
Ends9d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Sports
+38.8 pts

Counter-Strike: EXODIA vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 Playoffs

Yes probability

50%

Details
Volume$332.83K
Liquidity$53.18K
EndsClosed
High resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Politics
+1.0 pts

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes probability

44%

Details
Volume$12.18M
Liquidity$410.99K
Ends9d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
-3.0 pts

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Yes probability

86%

Details
Volume$830.97K
Liquidity$139.85K
Ends6d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Ambiguous wording
Sports
+45.5 pts

Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 41.5

Yes probability

100%

Details
Volume$265.26K
Liquidity$172.43K
EndsToday
Low resolution risk
Ends soon
Sports
+48.4 pts

Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 42.5

Yes probability

100%

Details
Volume$237.1K
Liquidity$181.87K
EndsToday
Low resolution risk
Ends soon
Sports
+56.5 pts

Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 44.5

Yes probability

100%

Details
Volume$306.65K
Liquidity$401.45K
EndsToday
Low resolution risk
Ends soon
Sports
+0.2 pts

Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Yes probability

1%

Details
Volume$1.54M
Liquidity$226.06K
Ends188d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
+9.4 pts

San Diego 2: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Keaton Hance

Yes probability

100%

Details
Volume$201.89K
Liquidity$115.26K
Ends6d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Politics
-1.0 pts

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Yes probability

31%

Details
Volume$2.11M
Liquidity$108.79K
Ends37d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
-0.1 pts

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$9.45M
Liquidity$539.66K
Ends6d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Politics

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Yes probability

8%

Details
Volume$4.39M
Liquidity$69.34K
Ends6d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Politics
+5.0 pts

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Yes probability

32%

Details
Volume$791.87K
Liquidity$127.89K
Ends—
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Politics
-0.1 pts

Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes probability

1%

Details
Volume$7.42M
Liquidity$676.24K
Ends849d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Sports
-54.4 pts

Spread: Packers (-3.5)

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$217.08K
Liquidity$273.9K
EndsToday
Low resolution risk
Ends soon
Sports

Korea Open: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell

Yes probability

68%

Details
Volume$167.16K
Liquidity$208.05K
Ends7d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
-31.4 pts

Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 49.5

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$171.1K
Liquidity$231.75K
EndsToday
Low resolution risk
Ends soon

Bucknell vs. Pittsburgh

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$171.65K
Liquidity$193.83K
Ends2d
Low resolution risk
Ends soon
Politics
-4.0 pts

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Yes probability

70%

Details
Volume$1.09M
Liquidity$96.42K
Ends—
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Sports
+59.5 pts

Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 45.5

Yes probability

100%

Details
Volume$162.46K
Liquidity$412.22K
EndsToday
Low resolution risk
Ends soon
Politics
+0.1 pts

Will Chris Van Hollen win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$156.06K
Liquidity$732.09K
Ends774d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Crypto
-4.0 pts

Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?

Yes probability

31%

Details
Volume$924.94K
Liquidity$71.99K
Ends6d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Sports
+2.0 pts

Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)

Yes probability

50%

Details
Volume$153.58K
Liquidity$185.08K
Ends3d
Low resolution risk
Ends soon
Crypto
+11.9 pts

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 25?

Yes probability

95%

Details
Volume$191.27K
Liquidity$52.89K
Ends1d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Ends soon
Politics
+0.3 pts

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Yes probability

62%

Details
Volume$2.32M
Liquidity$219.45K
Ends98d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
+0.1 pts

Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$1.48M
Liquidity$566.06K
Ends98d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Sports
+1.0 pts

Jets vs. Lions

Yes probability

28%

Details
Volume$193.03K
Liquidity$252.85K
Ends3d
Low resolution risk
Ends soon
Crypto
-5.0 pts

Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Yes probability

68%

Details
Volume$562.66K
Liquidity$74.12K
Ends463d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording

Texas A&M vs. LSU

Yes probability

25%

Details
Volume$127.13K
Liquidity$147.72K
Ends2d
Low resolution risk
Ends soon
Politics
+2.0 pts

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Yes probability

28%

Details
Volume$2.42M
Liquidity$282.75K
Ends39d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
+28.0 pts

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?

Yes probability

40%

Details
Volume$264.38K
Liquidity$10.19K
Ends1d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Ends soon
+19.4 pts

Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?

Yes probability

100%

Details
Volume$118.97K
Liquidity$569.98K
EndsToday
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Ends soon
+3.0 pts

Will France win on 2026-09-25?

Yes probability

72%

Details
Volume$147.1K
Liquidity$243.15K
Ends1d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Crypto
+3.7 pts

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 25?

Yes probability

99%

Details
Volume$173.25K
Liquidity$44.22K
Ends1d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Ends soon
-5.0 pts

Spread: Florida Atlantic (-13.5)

Yes probability

46%

Details
Volume$107.72K
Liquidity$119.24K
Ends2d
Low resolution risk
Ends soon
Crypto
-1.9 pts

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?

Yes probability

13%

Details
Volume$917.14K
Liquidity$102.11K
Ends6d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Sports
+64.5 pts

Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 47.5

Yes probability

100%

Details
Volume$96.82K
Liquidity$117.94K
EndsToday
Low resolution risk
Ends soon
-2.0 pts

Hawai'i vs. Wyoming

Yes probability

56%

Details
Volume$96.63K
Liquidity$98.68K
Ends2d
Low resolution risk
Ends soon
Crypto

Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?

Yes probability

68%

Details
Volume$136.63K
Liquidity$69.18K
Ends6d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Crypto
+1.1 pts

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 25?

Yes probability

100%

Details
Volume$122.22K
Liquidity$48.94K
Ends1d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Ends soon

Auto-generated market brief

Computed deterministically from the markets above — not an AI-written summary.

Top probability move

Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 47.5

+64.5 pts in 24h

Most liquid market

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

14% · Deepest liquidity in the set

Closing soon

Spread: Packers (-4.5)

Closes in 0 day(s)

Resolution-risk watch

Counter-Strike: EXODIA vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 Playoffs

High resolution risk

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How event market probabilities work

A market price between 0 and 1 is read as an implied probability. A 63% market price means the market is currently pricing the outcome around 63%, not that the event is certain. Prices move as new information arrives, and thin liquidity can exaggerate swings. Always check the resolution rules and source before drawing conclusions.

Event markets FAQ

What are event market probabilities?+

Event markets let participants buy and sell contracts on real-world outcomes. The price of a 'Yes' contract (between 0 and 1) is read as the market's implied probability of that outcome — a price of 0.63 means the market is pricing the outcome at roughly 63%.

Are these forecasts guaranteed?+

No. A probability is not a promise. Prices reflect current sentiment and can move quickly as new information arrives. A 70% market is wrong roughly 3 times out of 10 by construction.

Is this financial or betting advice?+

No. MarketPulses shows educational analytics only. We do not provide trading, betting, or investment advice, and we offer no trade execution or wallet connection.

Why do probabilities change?+

Probabilities move as traders react to news, polls, data releases, and shifting expectations. Thin liquidity can also cause prices to swing more sharply on small trades.

What is resolution risk?+

Resolution risk is the chance that a market's outcome is ambiguous or disputed when it settles — for example when wording depends on a specific source, date boundary, or official statement. MarketPulses flags wording that commonly leads to resolution disputes.